GULF LABOUR MARKETS AND PAKISTANI WORKERS: STRUCTURAL DEPENDENCE, POST-COVID RECOVERY, AND DIVERSIFICATION CHALLENGES

Abstract

Labour migration system is structurally bound to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states in Pakistan. In 2019-2023, the number of those registered by the Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment (BEOE) emigrated to the Gulf destinations, 50 to 62 per cent of which (50 per cent in 2021) went to Saudi Arabia in each year. This dependency on each other was tested to the core during COVID-19. The annual emigration dropped from 625,876 in 2019 to 225,213 in 2020, a decrease of 64 percent, due to closures, air travel restrictions and reduced employment opportunities by destinations along the Gulf. According to the estimates 304,000 Pakistani nationals returned via government-arranged flights. The paper relied exclusively on the available data from Pakistan Migration Reports 2020 and 2024. Gulf dependence is maintained through five mutually reinforcing structural features: dominance of low-skilled categories, bilateral recruitment infrastructure, culture of migration in source districts, remittance dependency of the macroeconomy of Pakistan, and the absence of formal diversification governance.  The post-COVID recovery was rapid: 832,339 emigrants in 2022 and 862,625 in 2023, largely attributable to the return of the demand for emigrants from the Persian Gulf. This study suggests that the dependence has increased as a result of post-COVID recovery efforts. However, it is not enough to have new bilateral agreements, it is also necessary to have a structural change in the skill mix of Pakistani emigration; something which no government has managed to achieve over a political term.