FROM STRATEGIC DEPTH TO STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTY: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF PAKISTAN–AFGHANISTAN RELATIONS IN THE POST-2021 ERA

Abstract

The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in 2021 and the subsequent return of the Taliban regime marked a decisive turning point in Pakistan–Afghanistan relations, transforming Pakistan’s long-standing doctrine of strategic depth into a condition of strategic uncertainty. This study critically examines the evolving political, security, and regional dynamics in the post-2021 era through a qualitative research methodology based on secondary sources, including academic literature, policy reports, and scholarly analyses. The study argues that although Pakistan initially perceived the Taliban’s return as a strategic opportunity to secure its western border and counter regional adversaries, the emerging realities have instead produced complex challenges, including the resurgence of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), increased cross-border militancy, and the Taliban’s autonomous and often non-aligned policy decisions. Furthermore, shifting regional geopolitics, particularly the declining influence of the United States and the growing roles of China, Russia, and other regional actors, have reshaped Pakistan’s strategic environment and limited its leverage over Kabul. The findings suggest that Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy is undergoing a significant transformation from influence-oriented strategic depth to a risk-management approach characterized by containment, adaptation, and uncertainty. This study contributes to the existing body of knowledge by integrating traditional strategic frameworks with contemporary geopolitical realities and offers a comprehensive understanding of the evolving nature of Pakistan–Afghanistan relations in the post-2021 regional order.