ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF HISTORICAL LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGES ON ECOSYSTEM SERVICES: EVIDENCE FROM SARGODHA, PUNJAB, PAKISTAN

Abstract

Ecosystems' diverse patterns, characteristics, and functions are crucial in achieving sustainable development. Land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) substantially affect ecosystems that provide essential services and are expected to increase degradation in the 21st century. Therefore, this study explores changes in ecosystem service values (ESVs) in response to LULCCs and the historical changes (2000–2023) in Sargodha district, Pakistan. Costanza's valuation coefficients, Landsat-8 OLI imagery, and the benefit transfer method were utilized. Land use changes significantly impact greenhouse gas emissions, water budgets, and the carbon cycle. The study revealed that the cropland increased by 2.28%, but built-up areas increased significantly by 12.29%. The ESVs increased from 3,056.39 million US dollars in 2000 to 3,304 million US dollars in 2023, but ecosystem services were negatively impacted by a 12.53% decrease in natural vegetation. Urbanization was the primary driver of the most significant increase (58.90%) in recreational ESVs. Reduced natural vegetation led to a drop in cultural, habitat, and gas control, while other services, such as climate regulation, experienced growth. Ecosystems are seriously threatened by LULC changes, such as deforestation, driven by the growing global population. So, it is becoming an increasingly important component of land use planning due to the need to balance environmental and human concerns. Policies that ensure sustainable ecosystem services in the face of changing land use, particularly in establishing forest land conservation systems.