THE FUTURE OF PAK-US RELATION FOR THE REGIONAL STABILITY

Abstract

Pakistan–United States relations have historically been shaped by strategic interests, security cooperation and geopolitical shifts in South Asia. However, the evolving global order, rise of China, and regional power dynamics have altered the contours of Pakistan–US engagement, requiring a re-examination of their bilateral and multilateral relationships in the regional context. This study aims to quantitatively assess the future trajectory of Pakistan–US relations and their implications for multilateral regional cooperation, particularly with China, India, Iran, and Central Asian states. It seeks to identify key variables influencing diplomatic trust, trade volume, security collaboration, and regional stability. A quantitative research design was employed using a structured survey administered to 250 respondents, including policymakers, international relations scholars, and security analysts. Data were analyzed through descriptive statistics, correlation, and regression models to evaluate the interdependence between Pakistan–US bilateral factors and regional multilateral outcomes. The results indicate a moderate positive correlation between Pakistan–US strategic engagement and regional stability when mediated by economic cooperation and diplomatic trust. However, tensions over security policies and regional alliances (especially with China and India) weaken bilateral predictability. Respondents forecast a gradual shift from security-centric to economically driven cooperation, emphasizing multilateral frameworks such as CPEC, SCO, and SAARC as stabilizing platforms. The findings highlight the necessity for Pakistan to diversify its foreign policy by balancing traditional alliances with new regional partnerships. Strengthening institutional diplomacy and economic diplomacy will be vital for sustaining Pakistan–US relations in a multipolar Asia. The quantitative analysis underscores that the future of Pakistan–US relations will depend on pragmatic engagement, mutual economic interests, and constructive participation in regional multilateral systems. A balanced, data-driven approach can foster a more stable and mutually beneficial diplomatic trajectory