BETWEEN DETERRENCE AND DIPLOMACY: THE IRAN–SAUDI–ISRAEL SECURITY NEXUS

Abstract

The paper will analyze the changing strategic triangle between Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel with relevance to how their security dilemmas perpetuate long running instability in the Middle East. The research applies Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) and the Social Network Analysis (SNA) offered by John Scott to an analysis of official documents, policy statements, and regional media in order to evaluate the interaction of the deterrence, diplomacy, and external interventions. The results are that Iran exerts power by proxy networks and nuclear ambitions, Saudi Arabia aims to achieve security by means of modernization and U.S. support, and, finally, Israel aims at containing Iran and normalizing its relations with the Gulf states. The dynamics have been transformed by the critical events such as the U.S. abandonment of the JCPOA (2018), the Abraham Accords (2020), the Saudi-Iran rapprochement (2023) and the Iran-Israel direct confrontation (2024) into a more direct confrontation. The role of the United States, China and Russia further complicates this rivalry as they are both guarantors, mediators and power brokers. The paper contends that despite the fact that deterrence measures aggravate mistrust, diplomatic efforts are weak in the absence of an inclusive regional dialogue structure. It finds that sustainable stability is in the transformation of zero-sum rivalries into cooperative security systems that are both state and non-state based.