PAKISTAN’S PARADIGM SHIFT FROM GEOPOLITICS TO GEO-ECONOMICS: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

Pakistan, historically characterised by its geopolitical orientation rooted in Cold War alliances, existential rivalries with India, and the exploitation of its strategic geography by external powers, has undergone a landmark paradigm shift toward geo-economics. Formalised through the National Security Policy (NSP) 2022–2026, this transition reframes economic security as the structural backbone of national sovereignty. Drawing on qualitative, documentary analysis of government policy documents, academic literature, and expert perspectives, this paper critically examines the historical drivers of Pakistan’s geopolitical dominance, the domestic and international factors propelling its geo-economic pivot, and the future trajectory of its power dynamics in relation to its geo-economic ambitions by 2030. The study finds that while the shift is strategically sound and globally aligned—reflected in Pakistan’s engagement with CPEC, BRI, and regional connectivity frameworks—persistent structural challenges including political instability, governance deficits, debt dependency, and unresolved regional security tensions with India and Afghanistan continue to constrain effective operationalisation. The paper concludes with evidence-based policy recommendations to bridge the gap between Pakistan’s geo-economic aspirations and ground realities.