US-IRAN RELATIONS UNDER TRUMP'S SECOND TERM: FROM MAXIMUM PRESSURE 2.0 TO REGIONAL PROXY REALIGNMENTS

Abstract

This research explores the recalibration of US-Iran relations in 2025 under President Donald Trump's second term, focusing on the shift from the initial "Maximum Pressure" campaign to a more complex and indirect strategy, termed "Maximum Pressure 2.0." The aim of this study is to analyze how the US has adapted its approach to Iran, moving away from direct confrontation towards proxy warfare, economic sanctions, and covert operations. The research methodology employed a qualitative analysis of primary sources, including government statements, policy documents, and expert commentary, alongside secondary sources like academic articles and reports from international think tanks. Data analysis involved thematic coding and pattern recognition to assess the evolving nature of US-Iran relations. The findings suggest that while the initial "Maximum Pressure" strategy succeeded in weakening Iran’s economy, it did not result in a change of behavior regarding Iran's nuclear program or regional activities. Instead, the Trump administration shifted to supporting regional allies and proxies to counter Iran’s influence indirectly. Iran, on its part, adapted by leveraging asymmetrical warfare and strengthening ties with non-Western powers. The research recommends that future US policy should consider more diplomatic engagement alongside continued pressure, particularly focusing on multilateral cooperation. The study’s implications suggest that US-Iran relations will remain volatile, with indirect confrontation likely continuing unless significant changes in leadership or strategic priorities occur. In conclusion, the recalibration of US policy has created a fragile equilibrium in the Middle East, where both sides continue to pursue their respective interests through proxies and regional alliances.