BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE (BRI), CPEC, AND THE IRAN–US WAR: A GEOPOLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), introduced by China in 2013, represents one of the most ambitious geoeconomic projects in contemporary global politics, aiming to enhance connectivity across Asia, Europe, and Africa. At the center of this initiative lies the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which serves as a critical link connecting western China to the Arabian Sea through Pakistan. However, the emergence and escalation of tensions between Iran and the United States, culminating in a broader military confrontation in recent years, have introduced significant uncertainty into the regional and global order. This paper examines the geopolitical and economic implications of the Iran–US conflict for BRI and CPEC. Using a qualitative analytical framework grounded in geopolitical economy, the study argues that the Iran–US war disrupts China’s westward expansion strategy, threatens regional stability, and exposes the structural vulnerabilities of transnational infrastructure initiatives. The findings suggest that while BRI and CPEC offer significant economic opportunities, their sustainability remains contingent upon geopolitical stability and strategic adaptability.