THE INDUS WATER TREATY AND ITS IMPACT ON PAKISTAN–INDIA RELATIONS: 2018–2022

Abstract

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has been a cornerstone of water resource management between Pakistan and India since its signing in 1960, allocating the waters of the Indus River system and establishing mechanisms for dispute resolution. Despite enduring multiple wars and geopolitical tensions, the treaty largely functioned as a stabilizing structure in bilateral relations. However, from 2018 to 2022, evolving political tensions, infrastructure projects, legal disputes, and environmental stressors increasingly challenged the IWT’s efficacy and its role in diffusing conflict. India’s development of river infrastructure — particularly hydroelectric projects on the Jhelum and Chenab — raised concerns in Islamabad about potential violations of treaty provisions and downstream water security, affecting agricultural and economic interests in Pakistan. Both countries have made use of the treaty’s dispute resolution mechanisms, including referrals to Neutral Experts and arbitration, reflecting a shift from purely cooperative implementation to competitive legal and diplomatic engagement. These tensions have illustrated broader strains in Pakistan–India relations, where water resource governance intersects with geopolitical mistrust, national security narratives, and institutional limitations. Understanding the IWT’s operations and contested implementations during 2018–2022 is crucial for assessing its sustainability as a conflict‑mitigating instrument and its broader implications for bilateral relations, transboundary water governance, and regional stability.